Process Essay

 About two months ago, I sat watching a German commercial TV network project...covering the forced-exit of German migrants who had failed in their application....gotten into some bad-boy legal problems, and were being 'escorted'  out of Germany (meaning they weren't agreeable about leaving).

So the police went down the process.  

First, you had the application or the paperwork....which was either pass-or-fail. If you failed, in most cases....legal applications were put into motion....trying for a review or second-chance.  As he  spoke to this....it amounts to paperwork, review-process, and final-judgement....in essence, MAN-HOURS.

In some cases, the applicant give a minimum amount of information...sometimes  deceiving the Germans.  This adds onto more man-hours.

During this period of application, review, and denial.....there's basic housing and supported provided.

Once the application goes to the deport status....then you have to go to the applicants original country and convince them to take the person back.  Sometimes it work....sometimes not.

Finally, when the country says yes, and there's a entry pass for the guy....the bigger problem comes up.

You end up scheduling a group....typically 16 to 20....which you have to surprise them at early AM hours, with a grab-and-go police team....taking the guy/gal to some airport.  

You, the gov't has rented a jet, and these  16-to-20 folks are handcuffed in the airport, and escorted by two police officers each.  There's a couple of extra cops for this flight...sitting in reserve.

So you can figure around 40-to-45 cops who will spend a whole day (probably 18-to-24 hours) getting to x-country....dumping the prisoners, refueling the plane, and flying back to Germany.

For each situation, from the start to the end....there's probably 400 man-hours devoted to this (figure roughly 12k Euro), and the aircraft rental cost.  

Even if you did like five flights a week like this from somewhere in Germany....it'd be tens of years to accomplish the job....even if no one else got into 'line'. 

I sat there after the show....pondering this.  

Even if the AfD Party has some big priority about dumping a bunch of migrants (say half-a-million)....the system is not designed to handle anything like that.  

You could triple the capacity of the process, and I would imagine it's still likely to take ten years.

The better process?  I think I'd do a mindset change....I'd bring in the 'bad-boys' and put them in some 12-month training camp.  You'd fill sandbags....get forced into German culture/history classes....get treated like 8-year old brats, and given heavy doses of motivation and inspiration.  If they weren't up to the task of good behavior....make them beg to return home.  

16 Jan 2025: Eight German News Stories

 1.  There's an interesting 'secret' memo story going around....that the Interior Minister (Nancy Faeser, SPD Party) has a paper drawn up to release/fire all police in Germany....who are party-members of the AfD Party.

BS factor?   I give it a '6'.  

You'd have to establish a listing of political affiliations...then you'd have to convince the Police HR folks that this makes sense.  How many would fit into this threat?  Well....it could be a thousand, it could be more.  

Where would you recruit and get replacement folks?  Anyone's guess....but you'd have to assume that future employees would never tell you anything about their political standing.

Refilling a thousand billets, and asking detailed personal voting info?  This might take a couple of years.

I admit...it's a good BS story and likely to draw hefty negative attention toward the SPD.  I just can't believe they'd go to this idea.

2. Funny story developing in Berlin....at the public network....RBB.

If you remember....back in the summer of 2022, the RBB network got into serious trouble/crisis over 'allegations' of nepotism and a serious amount of poor spending habits (alleged that Schlesinger directed).

At some point, they fired the network 'boss' (Schlesinger).

A Berlin Regional Court is now involved.  

They are trying to get negotiations going between Schlesinger, and RBB lawyers.

3.  German Ministry of Defense/Bundeswehr...have turned off their Twitter/X accounts....saying that they don't need the hassle.

I'll just say as each announcement came up....a fair number of Germans had criticism to lay out, and the 'gang' couldn't really counter it too well.

I do agree....they had the menu option of turning off commentary and should have done that on day one of use.

As for them coming back?  Yeah.....I would imagine they will be back by the end of 2025....with commentary turned off.

4.  Indianapolis Colts will come to Berlin for a NFL game as the new season starts in the fall.  No announcement on the date yet.

5.  N-TV piece.....around 2,400 wind-turbines with a total output of around 14 gigawatts working presently across Germany.

For 2024 newly erected turbines?  Near 630.

I should also state....as older turbines reach their end-of-life cycle....they are being torn down.

6.  Curious story from N-TV this AM.....these plants that VW is talking about shutting down....well, China has shown up and said they have interest in acquiring them.  They would manufacture Chinese brand cars...in Germany.  

No idea where this would go and I doubt that VW is happy about this.

7.  The Tupperware company in Germany....is now officially bankrupt.

8.  Interesting statistic from my state of Hessen.....officially on the books and compared to 2020....there are 100,000 fewer voters registered.  All  total, if they all vote....there are around 4.3-million.

Three Interesting Topics

 1.  There's a truth-commission of sorts in progress over Germany's 'turn-off' of nuclear power.  Environment Minister Lemke, Economics Minister Habeck and Chancellor Scholz are among those required to give evidence.

In the mix?  7,500 documents/papers are being read/reviewed.

The key point here?  Greens are strongly denying that Habeck made an "ideological decision".

Could nuke-power be brought back?  Three years ago, I would say zero chance....presently, with grid prices at a all-time level and Germans grumbling about both the prices and dependability....I'd say it's a one-in-three chance of coming back.  

Even neighboring countries who  sell Germany power when the grid can't  produce enough....are now grumbling about the continued trend.

2.  Election authorities met, and agree that 41 parties are in some form to be considered for the late-Feb fed-election.  That's 12 less than in 2021's last fed-election.  

However, there is some wording about paperwork required, and the 41 number is not concreted  down.

The authorities did say that via the Bundestag or state parliaments, there are ten which do not require extra paperwork: the SPD, the CDU, the Greens, the FDP, the AfD, the CSU, the Left, Alliance Germany, the BSW and the Free Voters.

The odds on the others?  I might go and say only half of the 41 will make the list  in the end.  A lot of this blame goes toward a last minute decision on the sudden election.  Affect on voter participation?   You might be talking about 3-to-4 percent of the national voters.

3.  This extra police protection for  soccer games and the cost factor?

What is  brewing here....over the decades....certain games were decided by a 'ref' or bad call....with 'bad-blood' that lingered.  So you have at least a dozen frustration-clubs existing and whenever they meet (say once or twice a season)....fans (mostly 99-percent guys)....drink a bit and get violent.

City authorities see this as a negative and fear the public viewing pictures/images of such action....so they call out for extra police.  This extra cost? As a minimum....it's a 100,000 Euro more, and in some cases.....it's up to 300k Euro extra.

Up to this point....the city got stuck with the bill.  With the court decision yesterday....it's a club bill. 

So your 19-Euro seat cost....probably will escalate to a minimum of 26.50-Euro.  You can do the math....40,000 fans....club gets a bill for 300,000 Euro....figure a protection-fee of 7.50 Euro per seat minimum.  

VIP cabins?  Well....it'll be curious if they are assessed the protection fee.

Back before Covid, I went to a Mainz game.  If you viewed the parking lot and the entry to the stadium.....there were around 50 police before the game started.  I'm assuming at the train-station and on the tram route....probably another 50 police.  In the stadium, as the game started....around seventy riot-police seated and  prepared for the end of the game....to  escort fans back to the train-station.

15 Jan 2025: Eight German News Stories

 1..  On the police cost for soccer games....the Constitutional Court came out yesterday and said....if you have two normal non-threat soccer clubs meet....it's a cost handled by the city/state.   But if the game is deemed high-threat....whatever cost is required for extra cops....it's a soccer club situation on extra cost...meaning you could get a bill of 300,000 Euro.  

What happens now?  Certain games with a 19-Euro per seat cost....will escalate up at least five to ten Euro on the same ticket.  Complaints?  Yeah, that will be a fair amount of complaints.  

2.  Chancellor apparently gave permission for the Bundeswehr (German military) pursue, and shoot down any drones that violate security.  

Now....the general belief  coming out....is that the Russians are behind this drone-crisis.  If you pursue facts....there's just not much there, other that sightings. 

What would  be used to shoot-down the drones?  No idea.  

3.  Some security folks looking at the Magdeburg Christmas Market attack....coming to a conclusion....either ban the Market entirely, or go to a more advanced security system.

They didn't go into a lot of details. I went to two Christmas Markets in December (Wiesbaden/Mainz).  I looked at their measures (cabling, blocks, active patrols).  I thought both meet the right conditions.  

4. EU talking about tariffs on Russian natural gas/oil imported in (yes, there are a couple of countries still doing business). 

I doubt this stops the import....the tariff simply gets passed to customers.

5.  ​​Green Party actively pushing an idea levying social security contributions on stock profits.  Key positive for them....the people engaging in stock buys....aren't 'normal' savers.  CDU/CSU has strongly talked against this idea.

If you wonder about how many Germans play the stock game....it's around 17-percent.  US participation in stock? Around 60-percent.  New Zealand?   17-percent. Brits?  Around 23-percent. 

What would be curious to know....politically....the Germans who buy stock, and their party affiliation.  Just guessing that fewer than 5-percent of Greens buy stock. 

6. SPD political push?  They want the minimum wage by 2026....pushed up to 15 Euro. 12.82 Euro is the current minimum wage.  

7.   The friendly image of Germany in France....was polled.  At 49-percent  positive view.

8.  England banning meat imports from Germany, over hoof-and-mouth disease.  South Korea and Mexico went the banned route as well.

Word of the Year (2024)? Biodeutsch

 This is a funny story in some ways.

Around 15 years ago....German commercial grocery sales got into bio foods...conveying to Germans that anything with 'bio'....was without poisons or 'bad' things.  I would suggest over the past  decade....maybe one out of three Germans are consumed to buy mostly (maybe not all) bio-products.

My wife will at least look at the bio section and if the prices aren't that bad...buy 'bio'.  Originally, fifteen years ago...bio stuff was 10-to-20 percent more expensive.  Today?  I'd say that it's fairly close to non-bio products.

So in the last year or two....'bio' started to be used for non-foods. The hype?  'Biodeutsch' got invented by journalists (maybe from the far-left or the migration-journalists)....to mean pure-Germans (of a non-migration background).

Yeah, it's a bit cynical....but also a negative word.  

So in this yearly new-word of the year competition....biodeutsch won.  

Word used by migration folks when wanting a blunt point on Germans?  Yeah, you could make that case.  There is such a thing as 'new' Germans and how they relate to the system.

Cost of Soccer Security?

 There's a court case to be determined by the German Constitutional Court today.

Issue?  At the top level and second level of pro-soccer  in Germany....there's always a discussion over security.  When 'X-team' and 'Y-team' meet....there might be forty German police in the mix of a normal game (where no serious threats are suggested).  However....there are games where 'X-team' and 'Z-team' meet, and there might be a urgency to have 200 policemen to secure the stadium and exit-paths.

So over the years....this cost factor has been a city-thing.  There's a court case brewing where the city wants to hand the security costs over to stadium involved.

Meaning?  Well....you might be used to a 19-Euro ticket (better than average seating) and find that with the security entanglement....it's now 24-Euro (possibly even 29-Euro).

The court's job? Determine by law existing....who is potentially at fault, and assess the future costs of soccer. 

Could they say a 50-50 split?  Yeah.

Could they say that it is a state responsibility....because they are making a profit off the games?  Yeah.

This being a major topic  tonight for the new?  It'll be a top-three item.

14 Jan 2025: Nine German News Stories

 1.  Last night, via ARD (public TV)....'Hard But Fair' public forum show (done live) came on.  So....it was a political dialog, and the chief moment came when Jens Spahn (CDU player)....came to suggest that the Greens were 'migration-deniers'.  All hell broke loose with that comment.   

My humble view of  Spahn?  On  debate action....there's just not too many people better gifted to argue with. 

2.  AfD candidate for the election....came out and had commentary to anti-wind-generators (basically suggesting going back to nuke energy).

3.  Survey done....one out of every two Germans is disgruntled with their  job and pursuing a 'change'.  

Some of this trend....I suspect....goes back to the start of the Covid-era.

4.  Greenland had their first ever poll, with roughly 57-percent saying to pursue US territory/state status.  37-percent said 'no, stick with Denmark arrangement', and  remaining 5-percent were undecided or wanting more information.  

One odd factor that I've noticed in reading up on Greenland....a fair number of the  55,000 of population....are disgruntled over treatment by Danish intellectuals/politicians over the years (it's not a recent thing....decades of building up).

My general view is that a face-to-face meeting after 20 Jan will occur with the Greenland PM and President Trump.  A number of conditions will  be laid out....with one odd condition in my humble  belief....being that they don't want refugees/migrants entering Greenland, or any significant flow of anyone into Greenland.  How you'd arrange this...is difficult to imagine.  

5.  EU says a review of the Digital Services Act and the Musk-Weidel conversation will occur.

Frankly, in general....all public conversations between two people  should be controlled....not just digitally, but in parks/cafes, on beaches, and in cars/trains/buses.   The more silence....the better off we'd be.

6.  Audi says over the past year....12-percent drop in sales.

7. Some German  police belief now....those drone reports from early December near Ramstein....that Russia was somehow involved.  Police aren't saying how they came to this idea.....may be a best guess situation. 

8.  There is still court action going  on....concerning the 2006 World Cup in Germany....and 6.7-million Euro of bribe money....over who paid what,  and where the money came from. Yeah....19 years ago.   At this point, investigation and court action....probably has spent in excess of 6.7-million Euro in expense money.

9.  Merz in his campaign for the election....said he'd like to review the end-date for coal-production/coal-energy.   2038 is the final point of the situation, unless they change the dynamics of the end.

Not  to stir the pot too much....but energy costs in Germany is the highest in Europe.  This has been a trend for roughly 30 years.  

12 Jan 2025: Four German News Stories

 1.  From the Pfalz....efforts were carried out in one community to collect discarded Christmas trees on Saturday.  At some point going from the village to the 'dump'....the loading crew (in the trailer pulled by a tractor)....all fell off with some trees.  Five young guys were wounded, with one kid getting an ambulance trip to the hospital.

2.  Police in Magdeburg updated the death number from the Christmas Market terror attack....adding one....up to six now.

3. At least sixty German universities and research foundations are leaving Twitter....saying they won't publish there.  

I'll just make the comment....most German social media 'inventions'.....have dissolved, or hit the peak within five years of release.  OneView is one example. Qeep is still around to some degree. Dot2day is around but mostly used for political chatters.  Qyep is still around but mostly for business owners. Smeet lingers on but is mostly a quiz/game media site.  Jappy has survived for 20-plus years.  Nebenan survives mostly as a neighborhood chat-App.  

Facebook?  Still the most used of all social media Apps....with roughly 47-percent of Germans having an account.  (If you were interested....only 6-percent of Germans are noted presently with a 'X' account.)

4.  Weekend political activity?  Almost all of the parties held meetings to get membership hyped-up for the national election in roughly 7 weeks.

The one key event I paid attention to....the BSW Party met and one of the big topics they wanted to hype (as a agenda item)....forcing the US Army out of Germany.  It's an interesting agenda item...very similar to the Linke Party stance of the past 30-odd years.  

Ranking this with the public?  It's not in the top ten topics of interest with most Germans....unless you are a far-left enthusiast.  

BSW at present?  They've been able to take half or more of the Linke Party voters....hovering around 5-percent.