How The Border Control Is Working And Where It's Likely Going

 Back before the Summer Olympics....the Interior Minister ordered the Fed-police of Germany to patrol the borders.

What this meant?  Up until this point....there was no border controls (like existed in the 1980s). So you go to the French-Germany border (I've crossed it and can talk to this)....there's a tent set up and they wave cars through....or have you stop and reviewed.

You show an ID, and they check the vehicle/trunk.  All good?  You continue on.  Problem?  If you have no ID....control will be reviewed.  If you can't prove anything....you DON'T enter Germany.  They take your picture and ensure a record is made.

What they admit....probably a couple hundred folks per month are denied entry.  

Could you still sneak over (walking/hiking)?  I'd say it's 50-50 on that opportunity.

The cops enthusiastic over the job? Marginally so.  They hint that this can only be done for a limited period of time.

What's likely to happen?  I think the Border Patrol stuff will restart....maybe in the range of 5,000 to 10,000 personnel.  My humble belief is that the CDU Party will talk a good bit over the idea, and embrace it. 

Another high cost-item?  Yeah....that's the negative.

This taking three years to fully man-up?  Yeah, that's another problem.

If The Coalition Fails And A Election Occurs?

 The Chancellor candidates?  Presently, the CDU/CSU have kinda agreed on paper that Friedrich Merz is 'lead', with Bavaria's Soder getting some kind of position in the gov't (my humble guess is either the Finance Ministry or Economics Ministry).  SPD candidate?  Scholz  has said his intention is to run.....the numbers aren't there, and I suspect that the current Defense Minister (Boris Pistorius) gets the 'nod'. Green Party?  Habeck is probably the more popular person to run.  AfD Party candidate?  It'll either be Tino Chrupalla or Alice Weidel...both have general support within the party. As for BSW?  Well....it can ONLY be Sahra Wagenknecht (it's her party....remember).  

I would discount the Linke Party....it won't matter....they won't rise above 3-percent of the vote...so getting seats won't matter. 

FDP is  currently trending near 4-percent....similar story.   If you asked me over their candidate?  I'd say Christian Lindner (the current party 'boss') would be the choice. He would really need to charm a lot  of people....to  get to 5-percent.

From the remaining 30-odd parties...dismiss any thought that they will rise above 5-percent.   

As for chief topics right now? I'd suggest the economy (quiet stagnant), deep recession, continual worry about crime/assault, national budget crisis (they can't seem to get a balanced budget with the anticipated income), rising energy costs  (highest in Europe on grid-cost), continual worry about Russia's threats, getting deportation efforts up to meet the numbers required, keeping the border closed, public TV cost frustration, rising healthcare costs (closure of hospitals on thetable) and saving VW (they will discover in the next month or two that BMW, Mercedes and Opel also need saving).

To touch upon each?

What brought things currently to a boil is a federal budget crisis....Lindner had a rough draft budget back in July, and people brought 'emergency-topics' to the table.  The recession has dampen spirits of serious income for 2025....so Lindner told Scholz and 'company' that cuts have to be made. 

The VW crisis?  They are several billion Euro in the hole.  In the old days....the gov't would step in with cheap loans and save the day.  Presently, they are now fearful of other companies saying the same thing.  The cheap loans simply aren't there.  But all of the parties are fearful of having 30,000 VW employees dismissed.  

Deportation mess?   At the beginning of the year....they listed around 200,000-plus folks who'd failed the application and needed to be deported.  No one says the numbers per week, but I watched a documentary piece last month....showing the  normal plane operation...roughly 30 folks carried off by 75 police....figure a quarter-million Euro per flight in costs. Lot of Germans are  outraged over the cost level and the amount of 'help' required just to get 30 folks 'gone'.   

Closing the borders?  Well....some are suggesting bringing back the 'old' border  control.  Currently, the police are operating controls, and  it's a cost item upon them.  They said in blunt talk back two months ago....they can't do this control thing for a long period.  To create the 1980s type border patrol?   You'd be talking about 10,000 employees.   How they'd pay for this?  Unknown.

Worry about assaults/crime?  You can ask folks in Hamburg, Bremen, Frankfurt, Dresden.....the major urban centers, and they are all disturbed how the trends have gone over the past decade.  Merkel hired 10,000 more police and  crime has simply out-paced their effective nature.  Count in mafia groups, drug sales, and a upswing in juvenile crime....it's a hot topic.  Same story in small towns/villages? No....if  you live in a village of 300 folks.....you probably are 100-percent happy with safety numbers.

Closure of hospitals?  Health costs are escalating and the rural folks are the ones getting the pressure put on.....to close hospitals. They aren't happy.

Energy costs?  Well...it goes back to denying Russian natural gas, and they need the war to stop.....with fresh new relations with Putin.  

The talk to bring back nuke plants?  The CDU/CSU folks are blasting away on this, and I might predict new nuke technology (the small plants) to be part of the future.

If an election occurs....I expect the CDU/CSU to win (in the 30-to-33 percent range).  The SPD is likely to recover some numbers, and get near 20-to-24 percent....with Pistorius fairly popular.  AfD?  There's this odd threat to ban them from politics, but presently....I'd say they might get in the 18-to-20 percent range....hyping up deportations, border protection and fixing relations with Russia.  With the Greens?  They've lost half their voters from the last election, and would be lucky if they get in the  9-to-12 percent range. Habeck is 'poison' when it comes to talking about the budget and the economy.

The budget problem keeps coming back?  Yeah....the recession is really crapping over stability.  Part of this issue is left from the Covid-era, and part is simply drawing upon resources to support the Ukraine in the war.  

Key future?   Scholz isn't really that likeable (no energy would be a good phrase to use).  So....anyone would be a better fix for Chancellor. As for Merz being there for more than four years?  No....I'd predict that in four years....he might step to the side and Soder gets the next 'nod'.

What I left out?  Well....this stupid property tax reform episode....is now deemed a failure, and the public wants a reform (of the reform).  In some cases, people are paying 3 to 4 times what they were paying before.   It took 18 months to crank up the screwed-up reform......so it's anyone's guess how they might resolve this mess.

Yeah, just a lot of drama....with no clear solutions. The two parties on the crap list?  I'd say half the nation is hyped-up negative about the AfD Party, and things have gone downhill for the Green Party (half of their party is now battling the other half).

5 Nov 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  The CDU Party presented a draft plan to bring back nuke power.  Odds of getting approval?  It won't happen until an election occurs, and the Green Party is not  part of the coalition gov't.

I'll just say....it's a long process.  Even if approved in 2025....it could be five-plus years before such a plant is built. However, with new technology (the mini-plants)....I could see a dozen plants back in operation by 2035.  Selling point?  If you could bring down power costs by one-third....it'd help the economy.

2.  The Interior Minister is developing a 'safe-countries' strategy to deport failed refugees.  Key factor?  Its developed in a way to avoid Green Party objections.

3.  Axe attack on a Paris train...four wounded.  Involves a fight that broke out.  Police say one guy's hand was cut off.  

4.  Statistical number released....only around 2-percent of smokers in Germany use e-smokes.

5.  Odd report this AM.....may be partial BS....but Russian 'agents' had some kind of plan to crash a German plane over at the Leipzig airport.   More substance on the report expected today.

6.  New banking ATM technology announced....explosive-proof ATM 'box'....weighing 18 tons. About the size of four refrigerators (with a door for entry).   There is some belief that this is the path for the future....ATMs likely to be removed from banks/buildings....because of the continuing trend of blowing up the ATMs for robbery purposes.

Observing This Spain Flood Situation

 There are five observations I can make:

1.  This southern region of Spain is usually dry (maybe up to 14 inches a rain in a year).  So when this eight-hour period ended....it'd dumped a full-year of rain on awful dry soil, and it had to run off (instead of being absorbed).

2.  Forecasted?  No....there might have been 30 minutes of some warning of massive rain coming....so this was a total shock.

3.  Emergency services?  Crap.  Even discussing some national FEMA-like recovery plan....it just doesn't appear to exist.

4.  In terms of missing folks?  Even today (Monday)....there's 2,000 on the list, and it's pretty certain they are dead.

5.  How long a recovery period?  Based on video....I'd say a minimum of two years.

Collapse of the Coalition?

 Fairly good odds now (say better than 50-percent) that the SPD-Green-FDP coalition will collapse by the weekend.

What happens next?  Announced fresh new election....probably by mid-to-late January.  

Blame?  It mostly goes to a recession situation, stalled 2025 budget talks, and inability of the gov't to cut budgets.  Along the way, the cost of energy, the Ukraine war, and migration woes fit into the public discontent.

Dumping Scholz as Chancellor seen as a positive thing now?  Over the past year....in oddly-worded polls....a majority of Germans tend to say Scholz needs to leave.  There never was what I'd call hyped-up enthusiasm for Scholz.  

Improving things?  One shouldn't pause over this idea much....it's just that different tricks need to be shown for political strategies.   

4 Nov 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  There's talk that a agreement on the budget has to be reached by Wednesday night....if nothing occurs, then by this next weekend....the coalition is rumored to collapse.

Odd?  There was a meeting last night between the Finance Minister and the Chancellor....lot of pressure to 'move on'.....not much said after the meeting.

Likely winner out of a new election?  No doubt....CDU/CSU with around 32-percent of the vote. 

Likely loser out of a new election?  No doubt....both the FDP (near 4-percent) and the Greens (near 9-percent). 

2.  King of Spain attempted to visit the Valencia area yesterday....with hostile feelings shown by locals. Federal gov't has been slow to provide help for the flood.

3.  Thyssenkrupp (the German steel-maker) CEO gave an interview this weekend....says the company is losing money every day.  Chief blame?  Politics not working in favor of the company, and incompetent managers within the company itself.

4.  Chancellor office in talks to buy two-dozen new exec chairs for the conference room.  People are peeved to learn 4k Euro a chair strategy is in play.  

To buy 4-star 'nice' chairs these days....run a minimum of 1k Euro. 

5.  Reform chatter on public TV 'players' (ARD and ZDF).  Currently, the top exec's are making near 400k Euro a year each.  The gov't wants to limit them to no more than what the Chancellor makes (roughly 200k Euro).  How they would downsize  the current 'team'?  Unknown.

6.  Spain's weather service is giving a warning of extreme weather in the next 24 hours....hinting at more flooding.  This time in Almeria region (extreme SE tip of the country, upon the coast).

7.  Hessen is setting up a Christmas-market rule.....NO knives.  Markets will have a entry point or two, with cops surveilling and searching people.  I have believing they have the manpower to manage this.....just in Wiesbaden alone, you'd have ten entry points.  

Spain Chatter

 Someone brought up today....with the floods in Spain, especially around Valencia....there's this odd situation where the EU came in and chatted up a decade ago.....how dams on rivers/streams were NOT a positive thing. 

So the EU funded a dam removal  program.  Each blue dot represents a removal project.  

The blue-zone?  That's the flooded area.  

Odds of a second discussion over the dams?  Yeah, I'd say when they sit down for a lessons learned episode....this might be a topic.

Fine Story

 I got my 3rd (ever) German speeding ticket yesterday.  Blitz-camera situation.

With 30-odd years in and around Germany.....I feel kinda lucky....just 3 tickets.  All three are 6 to 10 km's over the speed limit....so they generally run 30 Euro.

They come in a nicely worded letter (with my picture)....saying they applied 'tolerance-levels'.  This usually means that they are giving you five km of speed and maybe even eight km....on top of the normal limit.

So to be honest....in this zone I was traveling....I was pretty confident I was going near 52 kph (in a 30-zone).  That would have meant a 90 Euro fine.  But with their tolerance-talk....it ends up being a 30 Euro fine.

The sad part of this story?  Well....I end up getting sixteen lectures by my German wife about what we could have spent the 30 Euro upon.

My chief grumble?  It used to be purely 2 regular speed limits and a rare 3rd limit that you'd run into.  Around urban areas.....there were the 50 and 100 kph limit signs.  In the past three years....you now see a lot of 30 kph limit signs.   You might drive through x-number of regular streets for a decade, and then one day....like 2 weeks ago....they flipped a street area from 50 km to 30 km and there's a blitz-camera installed.