Greenland and the Election

 Next Monday (the 10th)....Greenland will have their national assembly election.  

Chief topic?  Well....independence.  Of the five parties running....I'd say that three have a strong position (going independent).

The lead party?  The 'I-A' folks.  They say with the results....they will come back for a national referendum in April....letting the public vote for independence.

Polling-wise?  I put an hour into reading up on this in the past week...the I-A folks will take around one-third of the votes.  The left-of-center SIU folks will get around 20-percent of the votes.   The remaining three  parties will carve up the 45-percent.

If I were guessing?  I'd say the referendum for April....will be a simple text....stating a national goal of independence....with a constitution to be written over the next 12 months, and a planned-out exit from Denmark (probably taking two years).  

As for passing the referendum?  Based on polling in the fall of 2024....around 60-to-70 percent of Greenlanders will approve the measure.  

Some Greenlanders being vocal and negative about this path?  Yes, without any doubt....somewhere around 10-to-20 percent will be bitter about the process.

As for US relations?  I think the independent-status is a bigger deal now, and what you will see over the remainder of 2025....a US consulate already exists, and they probably will add a couple of folks, and simply seek closer relations.  

A visit by Trump in 2025?  No.  I wouldn't rule it out for 2026 though.  

6 March 2025: Ten German News Stories

 1.  I sat and read through a Focus story....RTL's N-TV  news....broke the 'barrier'....getting more viewers for the news....than ARD's Tagesschau (the public TV nightly news).

To reach this level?  Well...yeah, it's probably thirty-plus years of effort.  

If you asked me the difference between N-TV news and Tagesschau news?  I'd probably say that N-TV is fairly neutral in how they tell the story....with the Tagesschau folks having a pre-determined angle or position.  

The one other odd positive with N-TV?  If you have some fast-developing situation and want immediate coverage or  explanations....the only place where you will get it...is N-TV (or N-24).  The ARD folks will update you when their next full newscast comes up.

2.  One in two Germans fail the theoretical driving test on the first-go-around.

There's a Focus piece by psychology professor Florian Becker talks about this problem that has developed.

The blame?  Well....some folks want to suggest lower IQ.  The professor points at 'lack of self discipline'....meaning they don't want to put time into studying.

When I took the two tests at Bitburg to get the German license....you had to start with the sign test, and you were given basically 30 minutes to readily identify around 120 signs. There is a method to this....if you think about it in the minute leading up to the test.  I didn't get that angle.....failing the test on the first go-around.  

The second attempt?  I understood the time mandate and how to ID signs.  

The other test?  No issue and I aced it.

3.  There was a interview on RBB (the Berlin public TV network) entitled: "Germany will not be able to fight on its own".  I sat and watched the piece. 

So, the basic position, as told in this news report.....while they may see the US as unreliable now....the German gov't has to now admit that the other 90-percent of NATO is not ready for an actual real war.  

This 500-Billion Euro to be spent over four years....to 'fix' this problem?  Well....at the end of this era....they suggest that they would then reach a point where they were ready for a real war.

The 500-Billion not being spent on infrastructure (bridges, roads) or other things (like fiber-topic, healthcare, education)?  Well....they didn't bring it up, but you just have to wonder what kind of crazy GDP has to be created....to cover all of the problems facing the public. 

4.  Minister of Defense for Germany did a speech (Wed) and said in a blunt way.....the Ministry is finished in giving weapons/retired equipment to Ukraine.  The depot is apparently now empty.

5.  Shocker....German Post announced this AM....8k jobs to be cut by December.  Helps to fix budget issues.....they suggest.

The one thing I've noticed...with package  delivery in the past year....the local delivery guy makes a 9 AM run with strictly packages for the village (500 residences).  Then  around 11 AM....a 2nd guy arrives with purely mail...and the two spend four hours delivering around to the whole village.

Within five years....I'm of the mind that centralized mail-boxes will occur at one single location in the village....eliminating the need for the 2nd  guy.

6.   Serious 'fight' in a Bavarian village (Viechtach)....village was set to  run a fest operation, and the mayor came up....saying he wanted  a spot reserved for grilling pork.

Well....in the city council....there's a vegan person, and they got the local vegans hyped up....saying that a pork grill situation was "degrading" (their word, not mine).

7.  N-TV did a update this AM.....if you were an asylum-person in Germany, and  submitted paperwork....the process can now take up to 20 months to approve or say 'no'.  Longest waiting period since 2017.

8. I noticed more chatter about repairing Nord Stream II pipes. What I would suggest....if some peace agreement comes  up and is done....the Nord Stream folks will probably have the pipeline fixed within  6 months.  Whether the Germans buy or not....unknown.  

9.  Finally, an odd story from N-TV this AM.....there's around 10,000 reports of damage to election posters, threats and physical assault...associated with the recent  federal election.

Just about all parties were 'hurt'.

Police say it's something they have not seen before.

10.  Officially, the Germans say (as of Feb  2025)....there are now 1.2-million Ukrainians in Germany.

Now, if you asked me....unofficially....on top of that....I might imagine another 100,000 (minimum)....who reside quietly and being non-registered in the system. These are the ultra-rich who left early and with their wealth, and don't want  any attention.

If the war ends....will most of the 1.2-million return to Ukraine?  I'm not sure of that claim. 

5 March 2025: Four German News Stories

1.  VW to show it's replacement to the Up (their first E-car) today....called  ID.Every1.

Pricing range?  Just under 20k Euro.

2.  Just odd....ton of German anti-Trump enthusiasts presently....while suddenly....a major shift in Russia, with Russians believing the war might conclude....becoming pro-Trump enthusiasts.

3.  I sat on the balcony yesterday.....bright sunshine day....15C (59 F).  Absolute  spring-like conditions.  

It was a harsh cold winter....with almost no snow.

4.   Agenda started up in Germany....schools want  a total ban on smart-phones within school buildings.  This will be interesting to see how far it goes.  Appears the ban idea would include staff as well.

Germany and Compulsory Service (The Draft)

 The CSU Party is pushing for one serious topic in the new gov't....compulsory service.  

For the record, as of 2011....the draft in Germany ended.  The Bundeswehr gains personnel....by offering salary, training and benefits.

There's also another item to add in this discussion....last spring in Germany....they did a poll, and just over 50-percent of Germans said 'no desire' to 'fight' for the nation.

How the CSU would have to  package this deal?  Well....you'd have to offer alternates to the military....like some ambulance crew job.  

More young men/women volunteering for the alternate deal....than the Army?  Well....that's the funny part of this discussion.  It's possible that you might have 50 to 60 percent of folks indicate the alternate path.

All of this coming as the CDU and SPD folks get a coalition going, and want to push in 500-Billion Euro....to enhance the German military?  Yeah, that's the other side of this story.

The current strength of the active-duty German force?  180k, with 80k civilians (logistics/maintenance).  

If they were going to add another 50,000?  For the past two years, they've been trying to recruit more and generally found little to no success. 

This being a top 10 subject?  No.  

4 March 2025: Four German Stories

 1.  Mannheim terror attack.  Basically, a German who drove a small Ford car into a group of Germans....two dead.....probably 20 wounded in some way.  Cops detain the guy.  Late PM last night....updated to  say he  had done some jail time a decade ago...physical violence.  Guy appears to have some mental issue. Zero radicalization angle.

2. Internal discussion between  CDU-CSU and SPD...up to 500 billion Euro for the German military over four years.

What can be said....over the past 20 years....the Merkel and Scholz gov't groups didn't fully fund the German Army....except in the last two years where they realized the problem they'd created.

3. The German Anti-Semitism Commissioner spoke up yesterday....suggesting for the deployment of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Germany's FBI) at universities.  

Laying Out NATO And Its Possible End

 This week....some type of new effort will occur with the Ukraine and getting a 2nd meeting  with Trump for  a 'deal'.   However, it's also been laid out that the UK (and possibly France) have already signed deals for rare-Earth materials.  If  true....I don't see what deal is left for the US. 

So onto the talk of a EU military structure (being pushed by Macron).  This  idea is moving fast.  So a meeting will occur this week. 

Trouble?  Well....right away....Turkey will  ask if they can enter the EU. 'No' will be the response....so as NATO dissolves....Turkey won't be a player in the EU military structure.  Expect issues.

Then the issue of how you finance this, and the response will be....something along the lines of a 3-percent to 3.5-percent of your GDP.  France might be able to take this step....along with the UK...for a limited time.  Virtually everyone else will shake their heads.

While this talk starts up....the Trump administration will announce 20,000 US troops will be removed over the next 12 months (mostly out of Germany, I assume).

How stable will this EU force be?  As each state election occurs....the threat of the  dissolving will occur.  France, Germany, and the UK in particular.  

At some point....von de Leyen will approach Trump and say NATO is dissolved....you need to  remove the remaining troops (much in the same time limit as France spoke to in 1966).  And at that point....the remaining US troops are given a 12-month period.

What will be funny?  Well....the EU will continue to buy natural gas/oil from Russia....helping them to rebuild....while having to find financial ways to build a bigger military.

Hardest hit by the US leaving?  No doubt....Kaiserslautern.  A billion Euro....gone.  And no remarkable way of resolving the 'hole'.

Finally....the Ukraine 250-Billion Euro required....which the US won't finance, and somehow....the EU needs to convince member states to cough up the money, and trust that it won't be misused.  Along the way....some  folks will ask....when will democratic elections occur in the Ukraine, and they will be told 'soon'.

3 March 2025: Eight German News Stories.

 1.  Just an odd story I noted out of the UK Guardian from Saturday.  The EU ends up spending more on Russian oil and gas.....THAN financial aid to Ukraine. 

Europe is estimated to have bought €22-billion of oil/natural gas from Russia in 2024.

Ukraine total support from within the EU?  Same period....€19-billion.

2.  Chatter from Sunday.....Focus story....Nord Stream II will be repaired.  If true?  Germany will be buying Russian natural gas.

3.  Hamburg state election results?

33.5 SPD Party

17.5 Greens

19.5 CDU (almost 10 points above previous election in the state)

11.5 Linke Party

8.5 AfD Party

4.  I went to the Wiesbaden Carnaval yesterday.....can't help but notice the police presence.

5.  Women will only make up one-third of the Bundestag for the next four years.

6.  Just an odd construction story.....new sports hall...Märkisches Gymnasium in Wattenscheid.  

Total cost at end for the entire structure....near 20 million euros. 

So they have decided that the 'slatted' look/design of the interior walls....causes some type of 'irratation' during work-outs.   

So the district is fronting a 40k remodel job on the brand new gym.

From the description....I get the impression the design had not been done before for a sports hall.

7.  German hotel industry is seeing a record number of guests....however, 20-percent of the hotels are openly discussing a cutback in employees. (N-TV item)

8. For 2024....considering all of the EU....a quarter of all asylum applications came from Germany.  However, there is a noted decline since border measures have been started up in Germany. (N-TV)

Five Things You Probably Ought To Know About Ukraine

 1. Since day one of the war.....at least eleven political parties have been 'disbanded', with their political leaders detained/arrested by the Zelensky-gov't.

2.  If you run any social media. TV station, newspaper, or radio station in the country....you operate only with the permission of the Zelensky-gov't.

3.  As much as the Russian death toll is just a 'best-guess'....you can probably say the same for Ukrainian soldier deaths.  

4.  If you ask anyone in Ukraine when the next election is....they have no idea.

5. The authorities in Ukraine have closed various churches.  At different times....the gov't has confiscated church land and bank accounts.

As much as you might desire to believe there is a 'good-guy' and 'bad-guy' scene to Russia and Ukraine....it's probably not that type of story.